September’s high electricity power consumption was 230 GW, down from the 243 GW recorded during the same month in the previous fiscal year, which was also the year’s peak. The high recorded in September is likewise less than the power ministry’s predicted 260 GW.
This is explained by the fact that September had less rainfall than August, which increased the need for cooling. According to Crisil Ratings, the long-period average (LPA) of rainfall for August is 254.9 mm, while for September it is 167.9 mm. Power demand in the nation fell for the second consecutive month last month, to an estimated 141 billion units (BUs), down 0.3% from the same period last year, in comparison to the previous peak of 250 GW recorded in May.
On the other side, power generation is predicted to have exceeded monthly demand in September, rising by about 2% year over year to approximately 152 BUs. According to Crisil, electricity output from hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy sources grew 40%, 9%, and 7% year over year, respectively, while power generation from coal and gas-based sources decreased by 5% and 15% throughout the month.
An additional benefit of higher hydro generation was the base impact, given that it had dropped by 26% in September 2023. As a result, the percentage of hydro generation increased to 15% in September from 11% in the same month the previous year, while the percentage of coal power decreased to 65% from 69%, according to the agency.
Although the proportion of energy generated from renewable sources rose, coal-based power remained the primary source to fulfil the electricity demand. According to the statistics, power plants’ dispatch of coal climbed by 3% in July and August compared to the same period the previous year, meaning that their coal inventories grew.
Thermal power plants have 37 million tonnes (MT) of coal as of September 29, compared to 25 MT at the same time previous year. El Nino-induced increases in warmth and decreased precipitation in 2023 have resulted in a markedly increased reliance on coal. As a result, the month’s production of coal power increased 17% year over year.
According to Crisil, “the reverse is happening this year, and as evidenced by the 13 days of stocks at power plants as of September 29, 2024, compared with 8 days last year, the coal stock situation has improved.”
The government has prolonged the mixing of imported coal for domestic coal plants until October 15 to prevent supply problems during the monsoon. Moreover, the blending weightage has been adjusted from 6% to 4% to guarantee power plants have an adequate supply of coal.
Crisil Ratings predicts that the current fiscal year 2024–2025 will witness an increase in power consumption of 6.5-7.5% due to weather-related factors, such as the intense and protracted heat waves observed in the first quarter and the dearth of rainfall in northern India in July. It also stated that “strong economic activity is boosting demand,” with projections indicating that the nation’s gross domestic product will grow 6.8% year over year in this fiscal year.
