The Ministry of Commerce & Industry stated in a statement that the “positive rate of inflation in September 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, food products, other manufacturing, manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers, manufacture of machinery & equipment, etc.” The WPI index changed by 0.06 % in September 2024 compared to August 2024, marking a month-over-month change.
According to preliminary statistics provided by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry on Monday, India’s wholesale pricing index (WPI)-based inflation for September increased to 1.84 % on an annual basis, from a four-month low of 1.31 % in August. WPI inflation increased to 3.36 % in June and 2.04 % in July. In September 2023, there had been a little decline of -0.1% in the wholesale pricing index.
According to a Ministry of Commerce & Industry report, food item inflation increased dramatically in September, rising to 11.53 % from 3.11 % in August. From 2.42 % in August to 6.59 % in September, the inflation rate for main items increased. In September, the inflation rate for gasoline and electricity was 4.05%, compared to -0.67% in August. Additionally, the inflation rate for manufactured goods during the reviewed month was 1.00%.
Vegetable inflation in the food articles category was 48.73 % in September, a significant increase from -10.01 % in August. In September, the inflation rate for pulses was 12.99 %, whilst the inflation rate for wheat was 7.60 % in September compared to 7.28 % in August. The inflation rate for cereals was 8.08 %. Fish, meat, and eggs had an inflation of -0.80 %. Inflation rates for potatoes and onions were recorded at 78.13 % and 78.82 %, respectively.
WPI inflation was recorded at 1.64% in September by the non-food goods, compared to a -2.08% rate in August. Inflation in the minerals sector decreased to 3.03 % in September from 8.76 % in August. September’s wholesale inflation figures for natural gas and crude petroleum were reported as -13.04 % and -16.78 %, respectively.
“The uptick was entirely led by an adverse base-led surge in the primary food articles inflation print to a 14-month high of 11.5 per cent in September 2024 from 3.1 per cent in the previous month,” stated Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Outreach, ICRA Ltd., in response to the report. Between these months, this put upward pressure on the headline WPI print of 156 basis points. However, this was somewhat countered by declines in the majority of other categories, such as fuel and electricity, natural gas and crude oil, and non-food manufactured goods.
Early October 2024 saw a sequential increase in crude oil and global commodity prices due to the buildup of hostilities in West Asia; this is anticipated to put some pressure on the WPI print for the month. For the second consecutive month, October 2024, the WPI-food inflation print is likewise expected to remain well above the 8.0 % threshold, driven by a double-digit print in the major food products sector. As a result, ICRA predicts that in October 2024, the WPI inflation rate will gradually increase to between 2.0 and 2.5 %.
